Good News Amid the NFL Super Spreading

The NFL has an extensive high-tech and automated contact tracing system—every person wears an electronic device that keeps track of their position and proximity to all other people with the same device. This is how the NFL has been identifying “close contacts” who then quarantine along with the person who has tested positive.

They report that there are “no indications of asymptomatic spread” - see ESPN.com link below.

This is an astounding development if true. For the entire pandemic, we have been told that the contagious period can start a couple days before symptoms begin, and also that asymptomatic people who test positive but have no symptoms at all can be contagious.

If true, what the NFL claims takes away a lot of the worry about spreading the virus to other people and not knowing it—to be responsible, all it takes is to be aware, sensitive, and truthful about all the possible symptoms, and immediately isolate and test.

My personal opinion is that it would also reduce the need to do routine antigen testing, and instead be vigilant about symptoms. (This is a good thing since we can’t find any more BinaxNow tests to buy.)

We’ll have an upcoming and useful post with a more comprehensive list of symptoms, including which are the “transmissible” ones.

Data Shows Asymptomatic Individuals Not Spreading Covid-19 NFL Chief Medical Officer Says - ESPN.com, December 23, 2021

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an invitation to our professional friends throughout new england

Dear friends,

Ever since the start of the covid-19 pandemic, I have been working to apply engineering, or at least an engineering attitude, to make sense of everything and figure out how to be safer and help others be safer. Beginning a couple of months ago, we started a “soft roll-out” of a covid-19 blog to our company website, where we share the latest information and personal practices that we have developed, along with a curated collection of local and national stories, plus a few products that we have for sale, specially modified for enhancing covid-19 safety. Here’s a link to the blog:

Kohler and Lewis Covid-19 Blog

It’s been gratifying for us to be able to help more than a dozen schools last year to improve their fresh air ventilation—a key method to reduce the covid-19 transmission risk. But we’re only a small company, and can’t do the engineering for everyone. So in the blog and on the website we have posted much of the key information that people can take and apply themselves to their own situations. Some of these are short videos, and some are written documents. For example, you’ll find a comprehensive guide to enhanced fresh air ventilation, focused on Vermont schools but applicable to any building, plus a succinct do-it-yourself guide for making the best out of what you have in your existing building (maybe just opening windows). These are in the blog and also in this section of the website:

Kohler and Lewis - Resources

When it comes to fresh air ventilation in buildings, more is always better in terms of reducing risk of covid-19 transmission. If you achieve the same ventilation level as being outside, you will have the same extremely low risk. However, your building will also be at about the same temperature as it is outside, so for practical reasons most people choose to have somewhat less fresh air, and more heat. Fortunately, we have an excellent technology to help find a good balance point, and that is measurement of carbon dioxide (CO2). This is all explained in the various documents and videos on the website, but the key (little-known) aspect of all this is that nearly all of the CO2 meters being sold today are wildly inaccurate right out of the box, or become inaccurate after a few weeks of use. For this reason, we at Kohler & Lewis offer meters for sale that we have carefully selected, tested, and adjusted to work accurately for years to come. (We don’t really want to be in the business of selling meters, so if anyone wants to take over this operation, talk to us!)

All our meters boil things down to green-yellow-red indicator lights, and many people are finding this approach very helpful in controlling their fresh air levels in their offices, churches, stores, and other buildings.

Finally, we also share on the website our personal practices for covid-19 safety, which are not engineering per se, and certainly not medical advice, but just sharing what we ourselves do regarding masks, testing, office policies, family gatherings, etc.

If you like the website and would like to be reminded of it by getting an emailed newsletter two or three times a month, you can “subscribe” to the blog - at the bottom of the blog page.

If you need a limited amount of help with your do-it-yourself work to enhance the ventilation in your buildings, we can consult with you by phone or Zoom for a pre-paid hourly fee.

Wishing you a safe and joyous holiday season!

“Cancel Holiday Plans” says a California doctor - San Francisco Chronicle

“Cancel Holiday Plans” says a California doctor.

The CDC says that the omicron variant accounted for 73% of new infections in the United States last week. California has less than a third of New Hampshire’s rates of covid-19 cases and hospitalizations, but here is a sobering article from California, quoting multiple doctors, including this:

“Dr. Jorge Salinas, a Stanford infectious disease expert, said omicron ‘couldn’t catch us at a worse moment’ nationally, with pandemic fatigue high and Christmas just days away. He said he’d advise most people cancel their holiday plans, or severely curtail them. ‘I understand it’s Christmas in five days, but the virus doesn’t care if it’s Christmas or not,’ he said.”

Is Omicron As Contagious As The Measles

by Kellie Hwang - December 20, 2021, San Francisco Chronicle

Our Company Policy on Covid-19 Safety

Case rates continue to be extremely high … test positivity rates in other New England locations are rising quickly … the NFL and professional hockey teams are having outbreaks … our NH hospitals are almost overflowing … our NH governor’s response is to encourage people to stay home from the family Christmas gathering if you have symptoms …

Keene just passed an indoor mask mandate.

So, we are strengthening our company policy on covid-19 safety, shown below. My covid-19 nurse friend and adviser says: "The policy is excellent. You’ve certainly done your research and are determined to keep folks safe."

In the office:

- fresh air levels above 30 cfm/person (CO2 below 750 ppm).

- HEPA air filtration above 60 cfm/person

- humidification in winter—a new posting coming soon on this

- masks for multiple people in the same room

Out of the office:

- we all share the same approach of being active to avoid exposure

- avoid going into buildings when possible (curbside pickup, etc.)

- masks when in a building with people outside our family bubbles

- we often check CO2 levels when going into buildings, and leave quickly if they are “in the red"

COVID-19 testing (without symptoms):

- the company provides BinaxNOW antigen tests as needed by employees

- we do antigen testing just prior to any inside-a-building contact with people outside our immediate families—for most of us, this is once a week

If we have any symptoms (for current symptoms list, see blog post of Dec. 13th):

- we stay home, often doing work from home

- do an antigen test right away, and continue to stay home for 24 hours

- 24 hours after symptoms onset, do a second antigen test, and if negative:

- 48 hours after symptoms onset, do an optional PCR test if you wish

Return to in-person work after having symptoms when we have:

- two negative antigen tests or one negative PCR test, AND

- 24 hours after last symptoms (my nurse friend says: "I recommend staying home until 24 hours symptom-free, as there are severe strains of flu out there this season, in addition to covid-19”)

Optional PCR testing:

- five days after unusual potential exposure such as a visit to a construction project

New Tips for Gathering 100% Safely for the Holidays

Two new tips:

- I thought it went without saying, that if you’re sick, don’t come inside a building with other people - any kind of symptoms that could be covid-19 (see Dec. 13th post). However, it seems that people are not thinking of this any more, and still showing up with a sniffle or a fever. I had a couple of technicians come to my house for a chimney cleaning a few weeks ago. “You don’t have any symptoms, do you?” I asked. One of them admitted he had a sniffle, which he had had for a few days. Turns out it wasn’t needed for him to come into the house, and they did their work from the roof. But if I hadn’t thought to ask …

- Finally, it IS possible to gather with 100% safety, or as close as we can get. Actually, there are different versions of this—here’s my personal one: It takes at least a week of preparation before the actual gathering, and I realize many people will not be able to do this. For those who are able: you spend at least seven days of staying home and isolating from other people. Five days just isolating—no contact with other people outside your bubble, except if you’re outside in the fresh air. On day 6, you get a PCR test, and as soon as you get a negative result you can consider yourself safe to gather together with others who have done the same thing. (You DO need to continue to isolate up until the time of the gathering.) Here at the Keene hospital, we have been getting PCR results on the next business day. If the delay is longer where you are, take that into account and bump up your PCR test to day 5, or allow longer than seven days as needed.

And reminders of the tips I mentioned in my Nov. 22 video:

- Lots of fresh air to dilute any virus present! Outside of course is best, but if you’re inside, open windows to keep the CO2 level less than 600 ppm as measured by an ACCURATE carbon dioxide meter.

- If you have HEPA air purifiers, run them in addition to the open windows, and keep the CO2 less than 750 ppm. (Purified air should be at least 15 cfm per person.)

- Our own practice is for each of us to do the BinaxNOW test on the morning of the gathering. (The CDC echoed this recommendation on Dec. 6th.)

- Real N95 masks for people close together, inside.

Could We cut our covid-19 cases in half simply by not doing indoor restaurant dining?

Looking back, that’s what happened. Somebody finally did a study on this question. Of course they are careful to not actually say that we should close restaurant inside dining. But you can use this study to inform your own personal practices. And note that we in Cheshire County still have close to the nation’s highest community spread rate for covid-19. Here’s an excerpt from their press release:

“Closing indoor dining during the first two waves of the pandemic was associated with a 61% decline in new COVID-19 cases … compared with cities that reopened indoor dining ... according to recently published data from experts at the Dornsife School of Public Health. The team looked at data from March to October 2020 in 11 U.S. cities, including Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas. The results were published last month in the journal Epidemiology.”

As far as we know, major news organizations have not picked up this story. We got it from a Milwaukee newspaper.

Here’s a link to the Dec. 6th press release from Drexel University:

New Data Shows Public Health Benefit to Closing Indoor Dining

Drexel.edu