Getting Close to the Edge of the Woods

March 11th marked four years since the World Health Organization declared the “novel coronavirus” to be a world-wide pandemic. We’ll have future stories on this history and the lessons learned, or not learned, from the past four years, but for now, here is a current status report.

It’s been four years, and yet, still more than a thousand people a week in the U.S. are dying of the disease (2% of all deaths), (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). The vast majority of these deaths are from the 65 million people who are either 65 and older, or those whose immune system is compromised. And among those surviving their experiences with covid-19 and vaccinations, there are at least 17 million Americans who suffer from “Long Covid”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/15/long-covid-symptoms-cdc

There now is a predictable pattern of increased disease during the typical winter, when people spend more time indoors (and we STILL don’t have enough improved fresh air ventilation to make a noticeable dent in the spread of airborne pathogens). People who choose to reduce their risk of another covid-19 infection continue to have good tools available (see Jan. 25, 2024 blog post).

And on the positive side, we can look forward to reduced levels of the virus in circulation, and reduced protective measures needed, starting as soon as the next few weeks.

We still have ongoing good sampling of wastewater for monitoring the levels of covid-19 and other viruses.  In New Hampshire, the graphs for Keene (brown) and Manchester (blue) show that we were at a low level last spring and summer from April through July (below the red line). So maybe only a few more weeks till we get similar conditions in both the locations shown!

And on the national level, the graphs for the Northeast (gold), Midwest (purple), South (red), and West (green) show a similar pattern of medium levels currently, and will probably continue to head downward. 

In the meantime, at whatever the levels are, keep the fresh air flowing for reduced airborne illnesses of all kinds!

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A Covid-Free Solar Eclipse

Covid-19 Risk When You Are Outside

The covid topic is just an intro for the real news—the upcoming total solar eclipse on Monday, April 8th.

Since people will be gathering outside in fairly small groups, the risk of spreading covid-19 and other airborne diseases is infinitesimal. Something like one in a million. (Email me for the calculation if you’re interested.) Still, exercise your usual level of care if you are inside buildings before or afterwards, otherwise, just enjoy the eclipse!

The Path of the Eclipse

More than 30 million people live in the eclipse’s path from Texas to Maine, and another four million are expected to travel to be able to see it. I traveled and saw the 2017 eclipse, a memory I will always cherish.

There is an hour-plus of build-up, during which the moon takes an ever-larger bite out of the sun’s disk, then up to four minutes where the entire sun is blocked—that time goes by fast!—and then an hour-plus on the tail end.

Below is a link to the eclipse map—on their website, you can click on a location to get the details, and scroll down further for more in-depth info. The map shows the path of totality between the blue and red lines, with the center (best) locations along the green line.

https://nso.edu/for-public/eclipse-map-2024/

The closer you are to the center of the path, the longer is the total eclipse, and the more pure is the image. When you are closer to the edge of the path, a little light leaks around the edge on one side.

Experiencing the Eclipse

Don’t ignore early and late stages. Stand under some trees where the light is glimmering through the leaves and making bright spots on the sidewalk below. Then observe the shape of these bright spots! (Hint—you, and the tree, have created a “camera obscura” with dozens of projected images of the sun on the sidewalk.)

It is only during the few minutes of totality when the earth darkens—but not black like midnight, only like a strange dusk or dawn. The sun’s corona streams out around the edges, and the temperature on earth drops noticeably. Be especially aware of the sounds of nature around you, just before, during, and after totality—you may hear unusual sounds and silences of the birds and insects.

But Will It Be Sunny?

Maybe. For most locations, the chances are it won’t be totally sunny. It’s a roll of the dice.

Here are the historical climate odds for many locations:

https://ncsu.maps.arcgis.com

For example, there are 3:1 odds of being sunny in San Antonio, Texas, but only about 50-50 in Montpelier, Vermont—here is the graph for Montpelier:

Eye Protection

I hope you already know enough to never look at the sun with your bare eyes—or sunglasses, or between your fingers, or through your shirtsleeve, etc.! The few minutes of totality are the ONLY time when it’s safe to look with your bare eyes. Otherwise, special eclipse-darkening film is readily available if you order it now. Binoculars are also useful (with removable darkening film).

Here is a low-cost option—small two-power binoculars with darkening film, $7 from telescope-maker Celestron:

https://www.amazon.com

Is It Worth It?

Yes! This is a chance of a lifetime—well, one of two or three chances of a lifetime, depending on how far you want to travel. The next one, that travels from California to Florida, is two decades away, in 2045!

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Whoops - A Double Hump?

Last time, we looked at the national virus sampling trends, and saw we were on the way down from the winter peak. 

Well, levels are on the rise again in some areas. Still usually at a medium level, but we are not at all in a state of "the coast is clear"!

Here are some graphs, all adjusted to show the most recent six months.

Nationally, levels are rising in the Northeast (orange).

Vermont and New Hampshire have a mixed bag depending on location. In Vermont, levels in Montpelier (orange) are heading back up.

And in New Hampshire, for example, Berlin (orange) is back up at this winter's peak, while Keene (brown) is down almost at a summer level.

We didn't pick the colors on these graphs, but it looks like to keep your levels low, don't be orange!

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Over the Hump ...

But Still At High Winter Levels

The amount of covid-19 virus in nationwide wastewater sampling is on the way down (per Biobot). But still at historically high levels, still affecting hundreds a day with hospitalizations, deaths, and Long Covid that can linger for years. As a reader of this blog, you know that you can be in control of your health and safety — here are some reminders and links:

You CAN be in risky places and still be safe

Even in a place like an airplane, where 100% of monitored flights (via sewage) have at least one person infected with covid-19, you can avoid infection with the right protection. See Oct. 19th, 2023 blog post.

You CAN control your own fresh air — even if you have no ventilation equipment or if it is broken

Start with the simple method of opening windows, and wearing coats if needed. But it’s worth it to reduce the number of all airborne infections by 80% (see Apr. 27th, 2023 blog post). You can optimize the window opening with an accurate Fresh Air Meter — see Dec. 15th, 2023 blog post.

You CAN eliminate virus in the air even without enough fresh air

through the use of properly sized and maintained air purifiers. The maintenance is the biggest key. I have seen many air purifiers in buildings with totally clogged filters, or simply not running at all. And note that the HEPA filters do NOT have to be changed as often as the manufacturer may claim. Our recommended brand, BlueAir, will give you a “dirty filter” signal based on a simple hours counter. Just reset the counter a time or two or three, and don’t change the filter. Local conditions vary, and you don’t need to change the filter until you notice the airflow/noise being less. Or until you get a dirty filter similar to the one in the photo below. (For a full description of air purifiers, see Jan. 11th, 2022 blog post.)

Clean filter

Ready to change

You CAN ensure a gathering will be without the virus

if everyone has a negative antigen test before coming together. Or you can nip a potential outbreak in the bud by testing everyone in the facility as soon as the first case is discovered, and then isolating those who test positive.  (See Feb. 9th, 2023 blog post.) Then ignore the CDC and if you want to not spread it to others, wait until you have a negative test (therefore not contagious) before going back to work or school. See Aug. 5th, 2022 blog post.

And you CAN avoid “Playing Make-Believe [Denying] Covid”

As a very good LA Time’s article said, it's “the illusion that the pandemic is behind us when it’s actually raging.” The key to facing up to Covid and also stopping its spread is to test yourself if you have ANY symptoms of any illness. Covid-19 symptoms can be just about anything these days, including stomach troubles and even earaches. The correct way to test — overlooked by most people — is to take your first antigen test on the third day of symptoms, and follow it up with another test a day later.

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The Covid-19 Silent Surge is Here

The Silent Surge 

We are now in the middle of this year’s covid-19 winter surge, and it is turning out to have the highest virus levels of the last two years (since the huge Omicron peak of January 2022). This conclusion comes from the testing of wastewater, which continues to be active and accurate nationwide. The Northeast has the highest virus levels (yellow in the graph below), and the highest percentage of the latest variant, JN.1. The Midwest (purple) is second. [ https://biobot.io/data/covid-19 ]

Individual states and localities are already higher than last year (as we showed in the Dec. 15, 2023 blog post for Keene, NH). Another example is Des Moines/Polk County, Iowa (which is currently beset by numerous presidential candidates and their superspreading gatherings)!

Nationally, the peak is expected mid to late this month. "According to the model of Dr. Mike Hoerger of Tulane University, … by January 10, there will be roughly 2 million daily new cases in the US, with nearly 14 million infectious people.” This means more than one out of every 30 Americans will be infected (and half to three-quarters not aware of it!) [ https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/12/29/pers-d29.html ]

So What?

Readers of this blog know all the effective measures you can take if you would like to reduce your risk. See past blog issues, especially Dec. 1, 2023 Blog Post. 

At whatever risk level you are comfortable with, now would be a good time to up your game a notch.

And note that this latest variant may affect your gut: "Cases of diarrhea, which may or may not be related, are reportedly on the rise. This comes as speculation swirls that the virus might be taking up residence in the gut — versus the upper respiratory tract, where Omicron tends to hang out, or the lower respiratory tract, where initial strains of COVID wreaked havoc. Keep an eye out for Gastro-Intestinal symptoms and realize they could be signs of COVID, not just the stomach flu, experts advise.” [ https://fortune.com/well/article/covid19-variant-jn1-symptoms-pirola-omicron/ ]

To Protect Others

The bottom line for protecting others is that you can usually avoid passing it on to your family and others close to you if you take immediate action to find out if your illness is indeed covid-19. Fortunately, this is easy to do. Anyone with a GI or flu-like illness should get tested for covid-19: either go to a clinic for a PCR test, or wait three days after symptoms began, and do a home antigen test — one test on day 3 and again on day 4.

Good news is that if you test positive, it’s not too late to start isolating from everyone else in the household — exposure is cumulative and the immune system can in many cases fight it off if exposure is mild in intensity and/or duration. Complete directions for isolation can be found in our Feb. 9, 2022 blog post — and we have good feedback from one reader who followed this procedure with no spread of the disease!

[ https://www.kohlerandlewis.com/covid-19blog/2022/2/9-you-can-isolate-and-not-spread-covid-19-geanc ]

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A Jump Start to the Winter Surge - and a New Meter to Help

A Jump Start to the Winter Surge?

Nationally, "COVID-19 is on the rise again, yet another indicator that the pandemic isn't truly over."

https://www.salon.com/2023/12/14/respiratory-are-on-the-rise-did-19-make-us-more-vulnerable-to-other-illnesses/

Covid modeler J.P. Weiland showed on December 4th, 2023 that the winter surge is about the same as it was last year at this point based on wastewater virus samples.

https://twitter.com/jpweiland?lang=en

And of course there are spots where the surge is even higher. One such spot appears to be here in Keene, NH, where the wastewater virus levels are off to a jump start — eight times the levels of a year ago, and already higher than last winter’s peak! (Note that the national graph above covers more than three years, and the Keene graph below is for the last 15 months.)

https://wisdom.dhhs.nh.gov/wisdom/dashboard.html?topic=covid-19&subtopic=recurring-updates&indicator=covid-19-wastewater#wisdom

And a New Meter to Help

So it looks like something in the order of one out of every 40 or 50 people have covid-19 today, and of course most of these people don’t know it, due to symptoms not appearing yet, or being hardly noticeable, or the disease being mistaken for something else without testing being done.

Given this, it’s good timing to have a new Safetulator™ Fresh Air Meter available for those who want to use the best tool for reducing transmission in group settings. We have learned from meter users that it is often difficult to know the best way to use a meter, to take readings, and to interpret them. (We gave some tips in the Sept. 15, 2023 blog post.)

This new meter is the easiest to use yet. It has the rarest of features compared to the hundreds of meters out there — that you can take it out of the box and plug it in and it works — accurately and stays accurate — without any adjustments or set-up on your part. There is a single button on the back that lets you cycle through three levels of display brightness and that’s it! 

It's great for your office, workplace, or classroom—where you have the means to adjust the amount of fresh air ventilation. Your control over the fresh air might be moving a lever on an air register, controlling a fan speed, or cracking open one or more windows.

To use the meter, plug it in to the wall adapter and set it up at a representative spot — not where any air is blowing on the meter, and not within two feet of a window or a person.

Then just let it run for a while — come back later and you will find a 24-hour visual history of the average amount of fresh air per person (CO2 concentration) at that spot in the room. You will be able to see when people were in the room, and when the room was empty or nearly empty. Here is a chart that explains the colors and meanings. 

Now you can experiment with your fresh air adjustments. As we have discussed before, you will be reducing airborne infections by 80% by “keeping it in the green”. If the meter shows all three green bars, this indicates the optimal level, with the displayed number being in the range 667 to 799. And if you have a properly-sized room air purifier that is running and has a clean filter, all the green plus the lowest yellow bar is OK too.

We are in the early stages of handling this meter, so we have limited supplies. We check the calibration of each meter, add some labels and instructions, and include a wall adapter. The package is available from us for $125 — if you’re interested in ordering one, please email safetulator@kohlerandlewis.com. Shipping and handling is $25 for one to three meters, and free shipping if you buy four or more.

Wishing you and yours Happy Holidays with lots of fresh air!

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