Here to Stay
Covid-19 is here to stay, but the mass outbreaks may be over for the time being. A new variant could occur at any time, perhaps is brewing now, but barring that, we can be cautiously optimistic.
A huge winter surge did not occur this year, as many expected (myself included). In New Hampshire, for example, there was about a 50% increase in hospitalizations after the start of the school year, and again after the holiday season (shown circled below).
“Endemic” means that the disease is here to stay (true) and that the infection rates are fairly constant (we don’t know this yet). The graph for New Hampshire shows the low point for hospitalizations, last June, which was just 17 people for the whole state (1.4 million people). We may be approaching that low point again, with the latest number being about double the low point, and trending down. Spring weather should encourage this trend to continue downward.
The End Game
On the other hand, we still know people who have been infected (again) with covid-19. And every new infection is another roll of the dice as to severity and whether some Long Covid symptoms will stick around or pop up later. So, for those who want to reduce their risk at this point, here are some of the best things to do:
- Use daily antigen tests (virtually eliminates the risk). For short-term gatherings under your control—the workplace, choral rehearsals, family get-togethers, etc.—it’s simple to have everyone do an antigen test that day. If you have one-on-one sessions with people—dental hygienists, barbers, medical people, etc.—you can ask them to do a test, and probably provide the test. Sometimes they will say no, sometimes yes. And if you develop any kind of symptoms, do two antigen tests on successive days. See Aug. 5th, 2022 Blog Post.
- Continue to have great fresh air ventilation (reduces the risk by 80%). This is especially important where you are gathering with lots of other people, such as at restaurants or theaters. You can maintain your spaces, or check other spaces you enter, with a Safetulator Fresh Air Meter. And you can supplement actual fresh air with in-room air purifiers. See Jan. 11th, 2022 Blog Post and Sept. 2nd, 2022 Blog Post.
- Maintain a mask-friendly culture for those people who want to wear masks (properly-worn masks can reduce the risk by 25% or more). Better masks can be close to 100% effective. See Mar. 10th, 2022 Blog Post and Dec. 16th, 2022 Blog Post.
- If you do get covid-19 again and know it, follow the best practices to avoid spreading it to others in your family. And don’t return to circulation until you get a negative antigen test. See Feb. 9th, 2023 Blog Post.
The Finish Line
Hard to say exactly when and where it is, but for me, I’m thinking that when New Hampshire hospitalization rates stay at levels less than the 2021 lows, I’ll be setting aside my masks except for intense exposures like airplanes (where 100% of tested wastewater contains the covid-19 virus!). I’ll wait and see about the antigen testing—it will depend on what others want to do in the groups involved. And, of course, I will continue to pursue excellent fresh air ventilation for all its benefits that go far beyond covid-19.
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