June 30th - Adult Summer Camp
Q - My wife and I are registered to attend a week-long, residential adult summer camp in a few weeks, with 50 attendees. The camp leaders are requiring vaccination, testing before arrival and on days 3 and 5, and wearing masks while indoors except when eating. We’re all going to be singing, which I know causes more virus to be exhaled if there is virus present.
What hasn't been discussed, however, is increased safety through good ventilation. I will be bringing my Safetulator Fresh Air (CO2) meter to be able to monitor the inside air quality. What more can be done to minimize our COVID risk, and the risk for everyone?
-Happy Meter User
A - That’s great that you are getting good use from your meter. Here are some suggestions:
(1) The most important thing in general is to realize that—without initial isolation—covid-19 might very well come into the gathering. So, while we can hope for the best, I think it is prudent to plan for the worst. At your location, the current probability per Georgia Tech (https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/) of having 1+ infected people among a gathering of 50 people is 48%, and for 100 people (at the concert) it is 73%. (These numbers seem low to me, perhaps due to the vast number of uncounted cases.)
(2) To minimize the spread, remember that exposure and risk are cumulative. Our bodies can fend off a certain amount of virus, but once we get overwhelmed, we get sick. So if people can’t do some of these things, don’t give up—still do the ones you can:
- antigen test every day
- symptoms check every day
- rehearsing and dining outside—will they have a tent or a pavilion?
- if rehearsing or dining inside, LOTS of ventilation as you understand
- the concert would best be outside too.
(3) Multiple unrelated people staying together in a single room is increasing the risk, so if there are extra vacant rooms, it would be best to have people spread out as much as possible. Every guest room should have a window fan.
(4) If people test positive or get sick, then either they should go home, or be able to go into on-site quarantine with people to take care of them, and the ability to Zoom in to the rehearsals when they are able to. However, they should not rejoin in person until they have two negative antigen tests, since there is a good chance they will be contagious for the duration of camp (per graph below, as first presented in the June 10th post).
We wish you a safe and enjoyable time at camp!
June 29th - Still Testing Positive
Q - As you know, I’m overseas on an 18-day group singing trip. COVID has invaded our group, including me. No serious cases. Like several others, I took a full day off resting. No singing. Then I’ve had a slight fever and headache, and a gravelly voice. Then I got back to singing softly, so no stress. The afflicted sit in the back of the rehearsal church, and the teacher moves back and forth to coach and answer questions. Unfortunate. But not dire.
But now, I'm still testing positive on rapid antigen tests after 11 days. No symptoms. Now we are doing our multiple concerts. Should I still consider myself contagious?
-Avid Reader
A - I’m sorry covid-19 has found you overseas; I’m happy to hear that there are no serious cases, however.
The CDC says "Positive rapid antigen test results after SARS-CoV-2 infection have been associated with the presence of viable virus.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7108a3.htm
So the safe thing would be to assume you are contagious, even without symptoms. In fact, it is not all that unusual to have lingering positive antigen tests, as in the Alaska study we presented in the June 10th post. A quarter of the people with no symptoms still had positive antigen tests after eight days.
Finally, remember that the flip side of antigen tests are the false negatives 1/3 of the time. So when you finally get a negative antigen test, and then a second one, you should be over your infectious period.
Wishing you good health and wellness so that you are able to sing with gusto!
May 31st: Top Ten Covid Myths
Comment: I disagree on two of your points.
-Independent Thinker
#3 - Requiring attendees to be vaccinated and boosted significantly reduces the chances that someone will spread COVID at the event. First because, while there are breakthrough infections among the vaccinated and boosted, they are more likely to be asymptomatic and less likely to spread, and second because they are less likely to be infected than the unvaccinated. Protection declines but does not completely disappear.
Response: I have not seen any evidence supporting your position, and only one study indicating the opposite. We reported earlier (May 20th post) that a computer simulation said there was more benefit to having everyone do a single PCR test ahead of time, rather than requiring proof of vaccination. My understanding is that the aspect of the vaccination protection that partially remains is against hospitalization and death, not so much against getting it or spreading it.
#5 - Masks can protect the wearer but also others nearby. Wearing a mask that is less effective than an N95 can still be helpful in case you are an asymptomatic case and want to avoid infecting others. Some of the virus you breathe out will be stopped by the mask. N-95 is best but other masks are not always worthless.
Response: Yes, even the 25% reduction that I cited is worthwhile.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts; we always like to hear them!
[The information contained in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as health or medical advice. Always consult a physician or other qualified health provider regarding any questions you may have about a medical condition or health objectives.]
Highlights From Past Blogs
June 10 - Returning Safely After Covid
May 31 - Covid Myth-Busting
May 10 - Reduced-Risk Gatherings
April 29 - The Big Meter
April 7 - How to Test
February 25 - One. Million. Deaths.
February 16 - Ventilation Revolution
January 11 - Air Purifiers
January 4 - Masks That Actually Work
December 15 - The Double Risk of Indoor Dining