The Covid-19 2023 Summer "Bump"

Where Are the Data?

As we said last time: "Other countries are still testing, counting, and reporting the prevalence of covid-19—but not in the U.S. Even when you see numbers reported, they are big undercounts … Cases are hardly ever measured. Not all hospitals are reporting admissions or treatments … Deaths may still be valid, but [there is a multi-week time delay.]"

So wastewater tracking is the best we have. Biobot is the one national website that aggregates the data from a fairly representative cross-section of the sampling locations. It’s the best nationwide information source to answer the ongoing question—When is it safe to reduce our personal level of covid-19 safety? For me, I was looking to match the low point of summer 2021, but the numbers have bottomed out several times higher than that, and now are heading upward. And for people who have returned to “normal”, the wastewater data can suggest when more safety measures will be prudent.

Four Years of Summer “Bumps"

It’s interesting to look back at the four years of history:

  • 2020 - a lot of masking and avoiding crowds, and a small summer bump:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 7/15/2020
  • 2021 - the first rounds of vaccinations had happened, and the CDC said go out and party, but then Delta arrived and the vaccinations no longer prevented transmission, so there was a BIG late summer bump:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 9/1/2021
  • 2022 - then Omicron arrived, with a huge winter surge, and then a few booster shots, but then the highest ever summer bump as the masks came off:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 7/20/2022
  • 2023 - after a mild winter surge, another summer bump is now on the way—we might already be at about the peak if this year is like 2022, or the numbers could keep rising through the start of school as in 2021. We’ll find out soon how bumpy a ride we’ll have.


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