News and Views As We Approach the Fall

Here’s a roundup of recent news, along with my viewpoints.

The Summer Bump Is Now a Slow Surge

The amount of covid-19 virus in our communities, number of cases and hospitalizations, stories of famous people who have been infected again, all are on the rise as we approach the change of seasons and the start of the school year. Vaccines and past infections are wearing out—a woman was in the news for getting the disease for a fifth time!

https://www.wkrg.com/baldwin-county/spanish-fort-woman-tests-positive-for-covid-19-a-5th-time-as-cases-rise/

The good news for much of the country is that more temperate weather will result in more open windows and more fresh air from mechanical systems in buildings—so that will help a bit. The bad news is that most people are not using the best methods to minimize the spread of the disease. And many are in complete denial— in fact, "22% of Republicans say there never was a COVID-19 pandemic.”

https://today.yougov.com/topics/health/articles-reports/2023/07/27/few-americans-say-currently-covid-19-pandemic

At Schools, People Are Keeping Their Fingers Crossed

And apparently, that’s about it. In Chicago, the school system has about 100 staff and students already known to be infected, but they are not planning to be testing students at school, even when the students report being sick. "The district will no longer do in-school COVID testing, but will provide at-home rapid tests to students and staff … “ It would reduce the spread if they would immediately isolate and test the students who report being sick during the school day. Since adults are more susceptible to covid-19 than children, schools could almost eliminate the spread by having all adults do an antigen test at the start of each school day, ensuring that none of them are contagious that day.

https://chicago.chalkbeat.org/2023/8/16/23835168/illinois-chicago-coronavirus-schools-new-year-covid-guidance

Outbreaks Are Again Occurring in Nursing Homes and Hospitals

For example, in Santa Cruz County, California, “four of the county’s seven nursing homes were experiencing COVID outbreaks as of Tuesday, meaning each had three or more infections at once. … Five deaths had been reported across the seven facilities in the past two weeks. …”

This is so sad, and so easily preventable. Cases and deaths easily can be prevented by daily antigen testing of each person who has been outside the facility the day before. As we reported in the Dec. 16th, 2022 blog post, tests cost no more than $5 each.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/08/16/really-alarming-santa-cruz-county-nursing-homes-hit-hard-by-recent-covid-spike/

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The Covid-19 2023 Summer "Bump"

Where Are the Data?

As we said last time: "Other countries are still testing, counting, and reporting the prevalence of covid-19—but not in the U.S. Even when you see numbers reported, they are big undercounts … Cases are hardly ever measured. Not all hospitals are reporting admissions or treatments … Deaths may still be valid, but [there is a multi-week time delay.]"

So wastewater tracking is the best we have. Biobot is the one national website that aggregates the data from a fairly representative cross-section of the sampling locations. It’s the best nationwide information source to answer the ongoing question—When is it safe to reduce our personal level of covid-19 safety? For me, I was looking to match the low point of summer 2021, but the numbers have bottomed out several times higher than that, and now are heading upward. And for people who have returned to “normal”, the wastewater data can suggest when more safety measures will be prudent.

Four Years of Summer “Bumps"

It’s interesting to look back at the four years of history:

  • 2020 - a lot of masking and avoiding crowds, and a small summer bump:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 7/15/2020

  • 2021 - the first rounds of vaccinations had happened, and the CDC said go out and party, but then Delta arrived and the vaccinations no longer prevented transmission, so there was a BIG late summer bump:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 9/1/2021

  • 2022 - then Omicron arrived, with a huge winter surge, and then a few booster shots, but then the highest ever summer bump as the masks came off:

Graph of tracking Covid-19 7/20/2022

  • 2023 - after a mild winter surge, another summer bump is now on the way—we might already be at about the peak if this year is like 2022, or the numbers could keep rising through the start of school as in 2021. We’ll find out soon how bumpy a ride we’ll have.

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It's All About the Air!

Covid-19

Other countries are still testing, counting, and reporting the prevalence of covid-19—but not in the U.S. Even when you see numbers reported, they are big undercounts, and really shouldn’t be reported at all. Cases are hardly ever measured. Not all hospitals are reporting admissions or treatments, yet aggregate numbers are still reported. Deaths may still be valid, but run the same problem of “with covid” vs. “by covid”. So is there anything left, for those of us interested in knowing the level of the “community spread” of the virus, so we know what are the appropriate risk reduction measures to take?

Yes—the sampling of the covid-19 virus in sewage. We’ll be looking into this more in the coming weeks. Some of the sampling isn’t reported too well, but there is one national website that aggregates the data from a fairly representative cross-section of the sampling locations. (For New Hampshire, for example, it includes three of the fourteen total locations.) The website is

https://biobot.io/data/covid-19

and here is a recent graph. I have been hoping for the numbers to fall to the July 2021 levels, or at least to the March 2023 levels, but such is not the case. It’s too early to really tell, but the latest numbers are rising slightly, perhaps due to air conditioning and people cocooning inside buildings to avoid the smoky air outside.

BioBot Wastewater graph

Wildfire Smoke

And speaking of smoke, at least we have good monitoring data on this! The best site I’ve found that uses the weather modeling is windy.com—select the PM2.5 page to show the smallest and most dangerous aspect of the smoke. AND they show predictions for the next few days. Where you click on the map is where they give you a numerical result. Here’s an example where the clicked spot is just at the top edge of the best Grade A air, shown in blue.

Windy.com map

Another interesting site is purpleair.com, which uses crowd-sourced readings from individual meters. Here’s an example at the same time as the windy.com page. Purpleair.com uses the EPA’s color coding which goes from green (best) to worst (purple).

PurpleAir map

As we reported before, the best protection if you have to be out in the smoke is an N95 mask, or a Safetulator HEPA filter mask. And for the N95 masks, get ones with an “exhalation valve”, which give you better quality air to breathe, with more filtered fresh air and less of your own exhaled air. We’re still looking for the best make and model, but you can check your local hardware store. This type of mask is what they stock for shop work and construction work to protect people when dust is being generated. Be sure you have a tight enough fit so that when you exhale, you can feel with your hand the warm air coming out of the valve.

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Summer Tips - A/C AND Fresh Air - Wildfire Smoke Protection - A "New" Mask

A/C AND Fresh Air

The covid-19 virus levels in most U.S. communities are low, as measured by the death rates and the levels of virus detected in sewage sampling. And nationally, the rates have been lower in every summer beginning with 2020, partly because people are spending more time outside in the milder weather. (Except Florida of course—sorry, folks.)

However, the rates have always bumped up a bit in August. Why? Because as more air conditioning is turned on, people close up all the windows to not waste the cool air. For buildings with proper fresh air ventilation as part of the air conditioning system, that’s no problem. But a lot of buildings have NO fresh air when the A/C is running, and this creates ideal conditions for the spread of covid-19 and other airborne diseases. Five times more diseases spread, according to one study. (See Dec. 16th, 2022 blog post.)

Plus, as readers of this blog know, good fresh air at the rates affirmed by the WHO and the CDC let our brains fire on all cylinders. (See Oct. 14th, 2022 blog post.)

So yes, it’s going to take a little more A/C and electricity, but if you want to give the people in your building optimum healthy air conditions, don’t hesitate to crack open some windows if that’s what it takes to have good fresh air levels (30 cfm per person, or CO2 readings below 800 ppm). If you don’t have a good CO2 meter (see Jan. 20th, 2022 blog post), you can sometimes tell by a slight odor that you notice when first entering a room when it’s shut up too tight.

Photo of CO2 meter

Wildfire Smoke Protection

All well and good, but what if the “fresh” air is full of wildfire smoke? As you can tell from the discussion above, it’s not a good idea to hide inside buildings with no fresh air at all. Previously, we reported on using (expensive) HEPA filters in open windows to remove the smoke from the fresh air that people need. (See Jun. 8th, 2023 blog post.)

Now we have taken that idea further, and found that regular furnace filters work just fine for removing the smoke. The type of filter to get is MERV-13, also called FPR-10. Filters are available in all degrees of cost and performance. But the better the performance, the more the filter inhibits the full flow of air, so during the pandemic, it was found that for filter upgrades for HVAC systems, MERV-13/FPR-10 was the best compromise level. These filters are now readily available from good hardware stores, in a variety of sizes. You can get the best fit for your partially-open windows, or in some cases use oversized ones.

Photo of filters in window

It turns out that these filters work well installed in windows, where the natural ventilation rate is very low, giving the filters the chance to do a good job removing the smoke particles. In a home test, here are some example readings of outside vs. inside (filtered) air quality. These are on the U.S. Air Quality Index scale where 0-50 is “grade A”, 50-100 is “grade B”, etc. on up to “grade F”.

Outside 154 - Inside 25
Outside 142 - Inside 50
Outside 158 - Inside 55
Outside 144 - Inside 33
Outside 127 - Inside 25

Not necessarily all the way to “grade A” but a big improvement!

And a final note, if you DO have filters (should be MERV-13) in your HVAC systems and you have been through a period with a lot of wildfire smoke, it’s time to check and probably replace the filters. Here’s an example from the internet (WLWT5) of before-and-after filters:

A "New” Mask

This is really great news—do you know there’s a special type of mask, readily available, that is perfect for filtering out the wildfire smoke if you need to be outside on a really "bad air day”? It’s been here all along, for working in smoky and dusty air, usually caused by what people are doing: sanding wood, cutting drywall, etc.

These are the same N95 masks that remove 95% of the small particles the size of the wildfire smoke, and used for covid-19, EXCEPT with the important addition of an “exhalation valve”. This means that your exhaled air is not filtered, but leaves the mask readily, so that your incoming breath is mostly cool, fresh air. VERY pleasant and healthy to wear compared to the valveless masks where you are rebreathing your warm, CO2-laden exhaled breath.

And, there are still many people who are taking covid-19 protections when around other people, due to compromised immune systems, other medical issues, or natural risk avoidance. These comfortable masks with valves are now OK to use for this purpose. Your unfiltered exhaled air is certainly no worse than the exhaled air from people not wearing masks, which of course is most people these days.

So try out these comfortable masks with valves! We haven’t yet picked a favorite model, but we will let you know when we do.

Photo of mask with valve

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It's Time to Make Good Air Quality the New Normal

The smoke from the Canadian wildfires adds another dimension to the increased emphasis on the need for good “fresh air” brought on by the covid-19 pandemic. Here is a roundup of recent news stories:

“Normal” air pollution and wildfire smoke can make covid-19 cases worse. “The new research shows cutting air pollution is a crucial measure for reducing illness and deaths during future outbreaks of respiratory diseases, including the annual flu season. Cleaner air brought health benefits almost as great as some of the medical treatments given to the Covid-19 patients, the research showed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/21/air-pollution-aged-hospital-covid-patients-by-10-years-study-shows

Car exhaust
Person walking with smog

The New York Times declares “War on Bad Air." “One of the paramount lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic is that fresh air matters.” “It was not a novel idea. More than a century ago, when infectious diseases ravaged cities in the United States and Europe, public health reformers preached the power of good ventilation.” The New War on Bad Air - The New York Times PDF

Belgium is doing it right! “A new law [is going] into effect, requiring public venues to meet air-quality targets and display real-time measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations."

And the US is following suit. “In March 2022, the US government launched a Clean Air in Buildings Challenge to spur building owners and operators to improve their ventilation and indoor air quality. In October last year, the state of California passed a law requiring all school buildings to provide clean indoor air. And in December, the White House announced that all federal buildings — some 1,500 in total — would meet minimum air-safety requirements. Nature - Diseases in the Room PDF

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When "Fresh" Air is Full of Smoke

What do you do when the “fresh” air is full of smoke? It’s not as simple as you might think, and the national news is only part of the picture.

The Canadian wildfires have been burning for weeks, in various parts of the country. The earlier fires in Alberta sent smoke thousands of miles to the Northeast. Smoke from the current fires has a much shorter path, caught in a circular Nor’easter wind pattern of counter-clockwise flow, and is affecting millions of people.

Here is the aerosol (fine particle) smoke pattern for 3 pm, June 8th, as shown on the excellent site windy.com. (Our location is shown with the dot, currently getting good (blue) air.)

map of Northeast

In various cities, the smoke this week resulted in air quality warnings, and cancellations of school days, Broadway shows, and major league sports including baseball. (When they cancel sports, you know it’s serious!)

Outside

If you have to spend some time outside, the standard advice to wear a good mask is correct—N95 or KN95, or of course our HEPA mask is even better (See Sept. 2nd, 2022 blog post). You have saved your covid masks, right? Some states know better, and are providing hundreds of thousands of masks to residents.

Note that the authorities this time made it clear that’s it’s only real masks, N95 or equivalent, that do any good—NOT leaky cloth or surgical masks. (Hmmm, but they told us surgical masks were supposed to work for covid?)

Statute of Liberty

Inside

The standard advice has been: stay inside. But then what? We still need to breathe.

And if you stay inside and don’t have any outside air, then whatever covid-19 virus is present will be easily spread. It’s hard to know how much virus is in your community since there is very little reliable monitoring any more (see May 25, 2023 blog post), but if you are inside with more than 100 people, then there is a good chance the virus is there, too.

In our office, we have a residential-style fresh air system, which means, crack open the windows. We know what is the right amount of fresh air because of our Safetulator Fresh Air Meter. (The “right amount” is for covid safety and also to let our brains function well, as described in the Oct. 14th, 2022 blog post.)

On the worst air quality day this week, after a couple of hours of slightly open windows, we noticed grit and dust on our desks and keyboards. So we closed the windows, but soon the meter told us we were in the yellow zone.

Solution? To re-open a window, but this time with air filters. We have indoor air purifiers with HEPA filters, so we have spare filters on hand. We fitted these into the window, and got purified air that put us back in the green zone, and gave us clean air that we noticed right away even smelled better.

filters in window

Commercial buildings have, or should have, good air filters in their ventilation systems. Especially schools—so for buildings where they know their systems are working well, the best thing for the students would be to keep them there!

If your building has a ventilation system, you should by now have MERV-13 filters—the higher the number, the better the air filtration. But not too high, or the fans won’t be able to pull much air through the filters — MERV-13 is the best compromise. If you don’t have MERV-13, you can get them now and they will take out about half the smoke.

If all you have is windows, then the best thing is to be able to filter the air coming in the windows as best you can, MERV-13 (FPR-10) or better. These filters are stocked in any good hardware store.

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