One Million New Infections Daily
Wastewater sampling at several dozen sewer plants across the nation takes samples and counts the amount of covid-19 virus in a given volume of sewage water. This has been going on since 2020, so it gives a great perspective on the current situation relative to past times.
Scientist and infectious disease modeler J. P. Weiland has been taking this information and using it to calculate the number of people who currently have the covid-19 disease. The results are only approximate, as the sampling sites are limited in number, and Weiland depends on some assumptions, including that the average infection lasts ten days.
Here is his latest summary from https://www.threads.net/@jpweilandmodels?hl=en
and here is the graph going all the way back to 2020:
Here are the four regional breakdowns, and the CDC's label for the national level from https://www.threads.net/@jpweilandmodels?hl=en:
Thriving During the Summer Surge
As the case rates rise, there are more celebrity infections in the news, and you may know of people personally who have come down with covid-19. I have a friend who joined a group of 40 people for a week's vacation in Europe. One person picked up the disease on the airplane trip, and it spread to a fourth of the group. Luckily, no one had to be hospitalized, but they found that it took as long as two weeks to recover completely so that an antigen test returned a negative result. (A negative antigen test means you do not have enough virus to be contagious to others — it's equally effective on the front end, for everyone gathering together, and for the back end, when you know you can stop isolating.)
Nevertheless, we have effective risk reduction measures that can allow:
Workplaces to avoid covid transmission,
Schools to re-open without having covid outbreaks, and
Friends to gather together and leave the virus behind.
Best results depend on testing before you gather. If you test on the first day, and again on the third and fifth days, that will catch almost all infections. Even a single test on the first day will catch a large percentage of the infections, and testing people who get sick can allow safe isolation. Remember that more-or-less half of all infections do not have enough symptoms for the person to notice. [See May 31st, 2024 blog post.]
The second most effective strategy is fresh air ventilation — a popular topic in this blog! [See May 9th, 2024 blog post.] Remember that good fresh air greatly reduces transmission of all airborne diseases — an 80% reduction in one study [see Dec. 16th, 2022 blog post]. Just open the windows or see our August 31st, 2023 blog post for more detailed advice. And note that this is a great time for outside dining!
All the other measures can have an impact, but these are the big two.
Enjoy a healthy remainder of your summer!
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