The Virus Is Getting Smarter — Not So Much For The Humans

The Virus

The Covid-19 Virus continues to evolve with new variants that do a better job passing the infection on to other people. The amount of virus in our communities, as measured by the fragments detected in municipal sewage, has put most of the country in the “red zone”.

US map showing Covid-19 wastewater levels

https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-map-wastewater-levels-1932576 

Levels have been rising steadily since May. Nationally, one in 43 people are currently infected (and infectious). 

Graph showing Covid-19 levels in wastewater

https://www.threads.net/@jpweilandmodels?hl=en

It looks to me like the virus is headed to set a record for a summer peak, and arrive at a level similar to all the past WINTER peaks except Omicron. This outcome is probably the result of two factors that are typical — a new variant more transmissible than the last, and the usual lack of good fresh air ventilation when the A/C is on; and two factors that are new — waning immunity from vaccinations and previous infections, and a new pandemic low point for the number of people who are taking protective measures such as masking, testing, and avoidance of dense crowds.

The significant good news is that while the sewage levels are rising, so far this is not the case with hospital admissions and death rates. 

"Evidence suggests ... that COVID-19 is continuing to lead to less severe illness in the population. COVID-19 can still lead to severe outcomes, however, particularly for individuals in specific risk groups, such as immunocompromised individuals, people age 65 and older, individuals with heart disease, lung disease, or diabetes."

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2024/july/30/vdh-covid-cases-continue-rise-no-deaths 

The Humans

The dominant human approach seems to be trying to get the virus to behave as desired by simply ignoring it, plus watering down any suggested safety measures — the CDC now says people who test positive for Covid don’t need to isolate for five days.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-isolation-guidelines-cdc-updated-positive-cases-rcna163292

And, with apologies to Casablanca, we are expressing shock! shock! to find that infections are still happening.

As on cruise ships, with thousands of people aboard, and no pre-boarding testing or covid safety measures in place. "Cruisers have been especially shocked to come down with COVID-19 on their recent trips. Many are sharing stories on social media about entire families getting sick during or right after they left the ship.”

https://www.aol.com/news/cruisers-contracting-covid-19-during-005855433.html

And as at the White House, which in March dropped testing for those meeting with President Biden.

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2024/07/biden-covid-test-cdc-pandemic-safety/ 

And even after (of course) the president tested positive a few months later, he didn’t always wear a mask when he continued to meet with people (and this was in accordance with CDC guidelines)!

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/biden-covid-19-wear-mask-cdcs-guidelines-112073485

And as at the Olympics, with zero covid safety measures in place, and covid infections sweeping through several teams. 

https://www.aol.com/course-covid-why-no-official-203600727.html

This is not to say that everyone should be avoiding getting Covid-19. But if you are to fully enjoy your cruise, or exercise your duties as president, or perform your best as an athlete, or simply continue a healthy life as an assisted living resident, you need to avoid Covid-19.

As we said in our blog on August 18, 2022, may we please have an INTELLIGENT New Normal?

Can We Please Have an Intelligent New Normal?


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